AGP Executive Report

US-China Investment: Beijing opposed Washington’s proposed expansion of curbs on US investment in Chinese technology sectors, including biotech, and warned it could respond. Growth and Demand: China’s economy grew 4.6% in the first three quarters, but consumer spending remains weak: retail sales rose just 1.1% year on year from January to August. Shanghai Trade: The city’s trade reached a record $590.5 billion in the first nine months, up 18%, driven by AI and high-tech manufacturing. Financial Opening: Citi won approval to establish a wholly owned securities firm in China, extending foreign access to the country’s financial sector.

Growth: China’s economy expanded 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2026, with high-tech manufacturing up 14.3%. Retail sales grew a slower 2.6%, pointing to continued pressure on consumer demand. Trade: Shanghai’s nine-month trade rose 18% to a record $590.5 billion, driven by AI and high-tech manufacturing. A newly opened bridge linking China and North Korea could also ease cross-border freight flows; Kim Jong Un crossed it on a visit to Dandong. Financial Opening: Citi won approval to establish a wholly owned securities firm in China, deepening its access to the country’s financial market. Trade Rules: Beijing proposed new export controls covering AI, life sciences and photovoltaic technologies, as Washington weighs tighter curbs on investment in Chinese high-tech sectors. Industry: Volvo plans to cut 2,500 jobs amid falling China sales and pressure from Chinese rivals.**

Public Finances: China’s budget revenue fell in September for the first time this year as land-sale income weakened, despite a 5.1% gain over the first nine months. The slide adds to pressure on local governments. Financial Opening: Beijing approved Citigroup’s wholly owned securities firm in Shanghai, ending a nearly five-year wait and making it the seventh foreign institution allowed full ownership of a mainland brokerage. Trade and Investment: Shanghai’s trade rose 18% in the first nine months to a record $590.5 billion, led by AI and high-tech manufacturing. Chinese companies have also committed to more than 2.5 million square metres of industrial and logistics space across Europe since 2024. Consumer Demand: China’s luxury slowdown is weighing on global brands, while smartphone shipments fell to a 14-year low in the third quarter; Apple gained share as the wider market shrank. Technology and Autos: AI-chip maker Cambricon missed sales forecasts amid tight supplies, while pressure from Chinese rivals is contributing to Volvo’s plan to cut 2,500 jobs.

Markets: State-backed funds stepped in Friday as Chinese shares slid into bear-market territory, with doubts over AI valuations and the broader economy weighing on sentiment. Financial Opening: China approved Citi’s wholly owned securities firm in Shanghai, allowing the U.S. bank to offer brokerage, underwriting and other onshore capital-markets services. Economy: Fiscal revenue rose 5.1% in January-September, but government land-sale income fell 27.9%, underscoring pressure on local finances. U.S.-China Tensions: Washington proposed expanding restrictions on U.S. investment in China’s biotech, AI and supercomputing sectors; Beijing called the measures discriminatory and said it would protect its interests. Trade and Green Finance: China-Europe freight trains have made more than 140,000 trips, carrying goods worth over $560 billion, while officials at Beijing’s Financial Street Forum promoted green finance as a driver of cross-border low-carbon investment.

Markets: China’s CSI 300 has entered bear territory, down 20% from its peak, as AI shares slide; Alibaba also fell after tighter e-commerce oversight. Growth Policy: Xi called for measurable growth and economic upgrading, while the NDRC pledged stronger support for domestic demand. New growth drivers now account for over 40% of growth, and Shanghai’s economy expanded 5.5% in the first three quarters. Investment: U.S. investment in China rose 7.7% in the first nine months of 2026, with inflows from France and Switzerland also increasing. Trade Routes: China-Europe freight trains surpassed 140,000 trips, carrying goods worth more than $560 billion and strengthening a land alternative for supply chains. Battery Industry: Chinese makers are stepping up overseas expansion amid domestic oversupply and trade barriers, announcing $12 billion in deals this year and $90 billion since 2023. Africa Trade: South African exports to China rose nearly 25% after zero tariffs took effect, as Pretoria seeks more local processing and jobs.

Markets: China’s CSI 300 entered bear-market territory, down more than 20% from its June peak, as tech shares slumped and investors worried about weak demand and limited stimulus. Growth: Shanghai’s economy grew 5.5% in the first three quarters, ahead of the national 4.6% pace, led by industry, finance and technology. National growth also beat forecasts, with exports offsetting soft domestic demand. AI Investment: DeepSeek reportedly secured $15 billion in fresh financing, with CATL and Tencent among the backers, as China’s AI race intensifies. Property Crisis: Evergrande liquidators have recovered just $436 million against about $46 billion in creditor claims; a first interim payment is targeted for the first half of 2027. Trade and Currency: The yuan climbed to a four-year high on export strength and a weaker dollar, while China’s proposed solar-technology export curbs drew attention from overseas manufacturers.

Growth and Trade: China’s third-quarter GDP beat forecasts as exports offset weak domestic demand. September exports jumped 36.3% year on year, but analysts warn the boom may cool in 2027 as front-loading fades. Industrial output rose 5.3% in the first three quarters, while consumer worries weighed on shares and deepened pressure on the auto market. Technology: Beijing is pushing to move research into commercial products as Chinese firms ramp up AI investment, including more than $35 billion in Nvidia chip orders. The U.S. ban on DeepSeek in federal systems—and Beijing’s threat of countermeasures—adds uncertainty for Chinese tech businesses. Finance and Energy: The yuan reached a four-year high on export strength and a weaker dollar. Foreign institutions are also showing growing interest in yuan-denominated panda bonds, particularly green and sustainable issues, while wind leaders gathered in Beijing to discuss rising demand for renewables. Trade Ties: China and Russia agreed to deepen cooperation in trade, investment, energy and transport, signing agreements spanning aerospace, science and technology.

Rural Business: Qingyang’s apple expo is promoting digital tools and overseas sales for an industry worth more than 12.5 billion yuan and supporting over 300,000 people. Growth and Markets: China’s third-quarter GDP beat forecasts, with exports offsetting weak domestic demand; industrial output rose 5.3% in the first nine months. The yuan climbed to its strongest level in years, while the central bank kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 17th straight month. Tech and Trade: Beijing threatened retaliation after Washington barred DeepSeek from government systems. Samsung and SK Hynix are upgrading Chinese chip plants for more advanced NAND production, but say they will not expand capacity. New Growth: China is setting up a state-owned data group to develop data resources and support AI, while Hainan’s free-trade port reported a 49.8% rise in goods trade in the first nine months.

Growth and Demand: China’s economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, beating forecasts as exports offset weak domestic demand. Industrial output rose 5.3%, but sluggish investment and the property downturn remain drags. AI and Data: Beijing launched a central state-owned data group to develop and commercialize data resources, aiming to strengthen infrastructure and support AI growth. Regional Trade: SCO members backed deeper trade and financial cooperation, more local-currency settlements and progress on an SCO development bank. China-Central Asia trade topped $100 billion in 2025. Tech Tensions: The U.S. ban on DeepSeek in civilian government systems and sanctions on five Chinese firms drew Beijing’s protests and threats of countermeasures, adding strain to cross-border technology business. China-Europe Finance: Officials and investors at the Financial Street Forum called for deeper investment and financial ties, including cooperation on green bonds and technology.

Economic Growth: China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter and 4.6% in the first nine months, beating forecasts as exports and industrial output strengthened. But weak consumer demand and investment remain concerns, prompting Beijing to pledge stronger measures to boost spending. Monetary Policy: The central bank is studying a shift to the overnight repo rate as its main policy benchmark, while keeping loan prime rates unchanged. Property: Resale home prices in China’s four top-tier cities rose for a seventh straight month in September, led by Shanghai, though prices remain lower year on year in most of them. Technology Exports: Service robots drew strong overseas interest at the Canton Fair; one solar-panel cleaning robot maker said exports had tripled year on year. Corporate Moves: Accenture is reviewing a possible sale of its Greater China business, which could be valued at up to US$1.5 billion, amid tighter security rules and changing priorities.

Growth and Exports: China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating forecasts as AI-related demand lifted exports and industrial output. But the export-led rebound masks weak domestic demand: fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months, with property investment down 20.6%. Financial Support: The central bank plans a liquidity backstop to curb forced bond sales, while new guidelines aim to direct lending and investment into innovation hubs in Beijing, Shanghai and the Greater Bay Area. Trade and Technology: Beijing has proposed export controls on 40 technologies spanning AI, biomedicine and solar manufacturing, including bans and licensing requirements. The plan is open for public comment until Nov. 15. Foreign Business: Japanese companies operating in China fell more than 20% in two years, as 4,137 firms withdrew or became untraceable. Separately, Accenture is reviewing a possible sale of its China business, reportedly valued at up to $1.5 billion.

Growth and Demand: China’s economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, beating forecasts and lifting nine-month growth to 4.6%. Exports and factory output led the rebound, while September retail sales rose just 1.1%; property investment and overall fixed-asset investment remained weak. Industry and Trade: High-tech manufacturing expanded 14.3% in the first nine months, well ahead of overall industrial growth. Beijing has proposed export restrictions on 40 technologies spanning AI, biomedicine and solar, including 23 AI technologies, while saying most AI exports would remain unrestricted. Monetary Policy: The central bank is considering making the overnight repo rate its main policy benchmark, replacing the seven-day rate to improve control over short-term borrowing costs. The yuan has also climbed to a four-year high. Corporate Moves: Accenture has hired JPMorgan to explore a sale of its Greater China business, which includes mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, potentially valuing the unit at up to $1.5 billion.

Trade and Investment: Premier Li Qiang said China will import more high-quality goods from Tajikistan and encourage Chinese investment, with cooperation spanning minerals, clean energy, AI and connectivity. EU-China Ties: Brussels is weighing new curbs on Chinese imports even as both sides seek to maintain business links; recent trade consultations produced a 16-point consensus. Economic Outlook: China’s September exports jumped 36.3% year on year and its trade surplus reached $133.5 billion. Economists expect steady third-quarter growth, but weak spending and a prolonged property slump remain concerns. Corporate Moves: Accenture is considering a sale of its China operations for up to $1.5 billion, according to the Financial Times; no deal is confirmed. Technology Controls: Beijing has proposed export controls on solar, AI and biotechnology technologies. The broader measures are still open for public comment, while registration requirements for certain overseas transfers have taken effect.

Trade: China’s exports jumped 36.3% year on year in September, putting the trade surplus on track for a record, while imports also accelerated. Third-quarter GDP is due Monday; economists expect growth of about 4.4%, with weak consumption and property activity still weighing on the outlook. Technology: Beijing proposed export controls on 40 technologies spanning AI, chips, solar and biomedicine, citing security concerns. Memory maker CXMT forecast a roughly sixfold rise in third-quarter revenue as it expands into server DRAM. Consumer demand: Railways carried a record 3.71 billion passengers in the first nine months, up 4.8%, with tourism and event travel helping lift services spending. But luxury brands face a tougher market as shoppers trade down to second-hand goods and domestic labels. Global expansion: Chinese automakers are tailoring models and services for overseas markets, with 25 brands at the Paris Motor Show. Their push comes as the EU weighs stronger trade defenses against Chinese imports.

Central Asia Ties: Premier Li Qiang pledged deeper trade and investment with Uzbekistan, including support for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and more Chinese imports of Uzbek products. Trade and Technology: China’s record trade surplus is intensifying friction with Europe, which is weighing new import curbs; Beijing is also considering export controls on AI, biotech and solar technologies. Green Computing: Ulanqab is turning wind and solar power into a draw for AI data centres. Its computing industry generated 5.68 billion yuan in revenue in the first eight months, up 40.3% year on year. Auto Shift: Plug-in vehicles accounted for a record 67% of China’s September car sales, though the overall market shrank 28% as petrol-car sales plunged.

Trade Tensions: Brussels is preparing faster powers to restrict Chinese firms’ access to the EU single market, while Beijing warns pressure will not force concessions. The dispute follows an agreement on Chinese hybrid-car exports and comes as China proposes export controls on 40 technologies, including AI, biotech and solar. AI and Clean Energy: Inner Mongolia’s Ulanqab is turning wind and solar power into computing capacity; its computing industry earned 5.68 billion yuan in the first eight months, up 40.3% year on year. China’s new-type energy storage capacity topped 153 million kilowatts by June, as the sector shifts toward market-based operations. Manufacturing: The Canton Fair is showcasing advanced and green products, while Chinese machinery maker LiuGong uses AI and automation to speed production and expand overseas sales. Trade and Prices: China’s exports are putting its trade surplus on track for a record, while factory prices posted their fastest rise since June 2022. Finance: The central bank says it will widen foreign investors’ access to Chinese markets and promote yuan bonds as collateral.